What is a good retirement readiness score?

Scores above 75 indicate a strong trajectory — your projected balance likely covers estimated retirement expenses with a high probability of success. Scores of 55–74 are developing: you'll likely be okay but small improvements now have big compounding effects. Below 55, meaningful changes are needed, and the sooner the better.

What is the 4% rule and is it still valid?

The 4% rule states that withdrawing 4% of your retirement balance in year one, then adjusting for inflation each year, has historically sustained a portfolio for 30 years in most market scenarios. It was derived from William Bengen's 1994 research using US market data. More recent research suggests 3.3–3.5% may be safer for 40+ year retirements, but 4% remains a widely used planning benchmark.

Does the calculator include Social Security?

No — this calculator models private savings only. Social Security income would supplement your withdrawals, making your actual readiness higher than the score shows. For most people, Social Security covers 30–40% of pre-retirement income. The calculator is intentionally conservative on this point.

How much should I have saved by my age?

Fidelity's commonly cited benchmarks: 1× salary by 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60, 10× by 67. These assume 15% savings rate, 50% equity allocation, and retirement at 67. If you're behind these markers, the calculator will show exactly how much more you'd need to save monthly to close the gap.

What return rate should I assume?

A blended 60/40 portfolio has historically returned approximately 7–8% nominally. After 3% inflation, that's 4–5% real return. More aggressive portfolios (80%+ equities) have historically returned 8–10% nominal. Conservative portfolios (bonds-heavy) return 4–5% nominal. Most financial planners use 6–7% nominal as a reasonable middle-ground assumption for planning purposes.

What happens if I retire early at 55 instead of 65?

Retiring 10 years early has a compounding negative effect: you lose 10 years of contributions, 10 years of growth on your existing balance, and you need your money to last 10 years longer. The calculator models this precisely — try both retirement ages and compare the score difference. For most people, working 3–5 more years has a larger impact than any other single variable.

🌅Retirement

What Is Your Retirement Readiness Score?

Will your savings actually last through retirement?

What This Does

Retirement readiness isn't a feeling — it's a number. This calculator scores your current trajectory from 0 to 100 and estimates the probability that your savings will last through retirement without running out. Most people discover they're either further behind than they thought, or that a few targeted adjustments would put them solidly on track. The calculator uses four inputs that actually drive retirement outcomes: your current age and savings (your starting position), your monthly savings rate (your engine), your expected retirement age (your timeline), and your assumed real return after inflation (your fuel). From those inputs, it projects your wealth at retirement, models a sustainable annual withdrawal using the 4% rule, and estimates how that compares to your likely spending needs. What makes this different from a simple savings calculator is the readiness score. Instead of showing you a projected balance and leaving you to interpret it, the score translates that projection into a clear verdict — Critical, At Risk, Developing, Strong, or Excellent — with a ranked action plan for closing the gap. Use it annually to track your trajectory and catch problems early when they're still easy to fix.

Assumptions

·Nominal return is applied annually to the growing balance; inflation is used to calculate real purchasing power
·Sustainable withdrawal estimated using the 4% rule (balance × 0.04)
·Retirement probability of success estimated using a simplified Monte Carlo approximation based on savings rate and margin above the target balance
·Does not include Social Security, pension income, or inheritance
·Tax treatment is not modeled — assumes pre-tax contributions and withdrawals cancel out or that it is a Roth account

How It's Calculated

Retirement balance at target age uses future value of a growing annuity: FV = PV × (1+r)^n + PMT × [(1+r)^n – 1] / r Where: PV = current savings · PMT = monthly contribution · r = monthly nominal return · n = months to retirement. Real balance = FV ÷ (1+inflation)^years_to_retirement Sustainable annual withdrawal = FV × 0.04 (4% rule) Annual income needed = estimated at 80% of current gross income (replace with actual when available) Readiness score = weighted composite of: • Savings rate vs target (25%) • Balance at retirement vs needed (40%) • Years of runway post-retirement (20%) • Buffer above minimum threshold (15%)

When Should You Use This?

→You want to know if your current savings rate is enough to retire on time
→You're considering retiring early and want to model the impact
→You just got a raise and want to see how a contribution increase changes your outlook
→You're over 45 and want an honest assessment before it's too late to course-correct
→You're comparing different retirement ages to find the crossover point

Worked Examples

Example 1: 35-year-old behind but recoverable

Inputs: Age: 35 · Savings: $28,000 · Monthly: $800 · Retire: 65 · Return: 7% · Inflation: 3%

Result: Projected balance: $1.06M · Real balance: $411K · Score: 54/100 — Developing · Probability: 61%

Current trajectory falls short. Adding $400/month to contributions pushes the score to 72 and probability to 78%. Most actionable lever at 35 is contribution rate.

Example 2: 52-year-old strong position

Inputs: Age: 52 · Savings: $480,000 · Monthly: $2,500 · Retire: 65 · Return: 7% · Inflation: 3%

Result: Projected balance: $1.89M · Real balance: $1.22M · Score: 85/100 — Excellent · Probability: 93%

Well positioned. At this balance, the key risk is sequence-of-returns in the 5 years before and after retirement. Shifting to a more conservative allocation at 60 is the main remaining action.

🏦 Retirement Readiness Score

Score (0–100) · Probability of Success · Scenario Comparison · Action Plan

Results update in real time. Score = ratio of projected real balance to 4% rule target (70pts) + savings rate (30pts). Probability from historical market data.

📋 Your Retirement Profile

Current Age

Target Retirement Age

Current Savings

Monthly Contribution

All accounts combined

Expected Annual Return

Historical avg: 7–8%

Inflation Rate

Long-run avg: ~3%

About This Calculator

This retirement readiness calculator computes a 0–100 score from 6 inputs in real time via useEffect. Accumulation: balanceAtRetirement = savings × (1+r)^months + monthly × ((1+r)^months − 1) / r, where r = annualReturn/12. realBalance = nominal ÷ (1+inflation)^years. Score: clamp((realBalance / (80000×25)) × 70) + savingsRateScore. Probability: calibrated from Trinity Study historical data by score band. Five scenarios: current, +$500/mo, +$1k/mo, retire 2yr early, retire 3yr later.

Overview tab: stacked AreaChart with contributions (emerald) + investment growth (tier color) over time, retirement age ReferenceLine, plus key insights. Scenarios tab: BarChart of real balance at retirement for 5 scenarios (bars colored by readiness tier); BarChart of probability of success (green ≥80%, amber ≥65%, red below) with 80% ReferenceLine; detail table with all scenario metrics. Projection tab: collapsible year-by-year table showing nominal/real balance, contributions, growth with show-all/show-fewer toggle.

Educational model only. Not financial advice. Consult a fee-only financial planner (NAPFA: napfa.org).

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

✕Assuming Social Security will fully fund retirement — for most people it covers only 30–40% of pre-retirement income
✕Using nominal returns without accounting for inflation — a $2M balance in 30 years buys far less than $2M today
✕Not increasing contributions when income rises — lifestyle inflation is the most common reason people stay behind
✕Underestimating healthcare costs in retirement — these average $315,000+ over retirement for a couple (Fidelity 2023)
✕Planning to retire at 65 but spending as if retirement is 20 years away — run the numbers at your actual expected retirement age

Frequently Asked Questions